We help clients understand their Forecasted demand:
  • We work with your commercial colleagues to jointly develop at least 3 different scenarios of forecasted global demand.
  • Taking into account market role out plans, market size data, competitor landscape, willingness of payers to fund etc.
We develop three forecast scenarios:
  • Upside sales forecast
  • Basecase sales forecast
  • Downsize sales forecast
From the sales forecasts we develop drug product, drug substance, & critical component forecasts
  • Upside demand
  • Basecase demand
  • Downside demand
Understand demand – why critical
Example if you don’t fully understand demand:
  • Vaccine to prevent a disease of the developing world
  • Demand projections 40~50 million doses in 1st year of introduction
  • Company: Invested significant amount of money, time and effort scaling up production, expanding facilities, adding additional manufacturing capacity, and manufacturing launch stock in anticipation of demand
What happened?
  • Actual demand only ~10 million units
  • Funding not available to support vaccination programs
  • Vaccine had short shelf life
  • 30-40 million doses destroyed