Forecast Demand Assessments
We help clients understand their Forecasted demand:
- We work with your commercial colleagues to jointly develop at least 3 different scenarios of forecasted global demand.
- Taking into account market role out plans, market size data, competitor landscape, willingness of payers to fund etc.
We develop three forecast scenarios:
- Upside sales forecast
- Basecase sales forecast
- Downsize sales forecast
From the sales forecasts we develop drug product, drug substance, & critical component forecasts
- Upside demand
- Basecase demand
- Downside demand
Understand demand – why critical
Example if you don’t fully understand demand:
- Vaccine to prevent a disease of the developing world
- Demand projections 40~50 million doses in 1st year of introduction
- Company: Invested significant amount of money, time and effort scaling up production, expanding facilities, adding additional manufacturing capacity, and manufacturing launch stock in anticipation of demand
What happened?
- Actual demand only ~10 million units
- Funding not available to support vaccination programs
- Vaccine had short shelf life
- 30-40 million doses destroyed